President Trump Has the "Big Mo" On His Side
Any Republicans who have gotten off the Trump Train may have run for an exit when the game was still close in the seventh inning. Trump is almost in the same position that he found himself in 2016 and is closing fast. The polling news has improved for the President as he seeks another four years in office. While Democrats are crowing about their early voting totals, this will not be enough to overcome a Red Surge on Election Day. This is evidenced by some of we have been seeing from early voting in states like Florida.
Polls Show a Tightening of the Race for the White House
Several polls have showed that the race for the White House is tightening. This is even more true in the battleground states that President Trump will need to hold to win reelection. In fact, polls in these states have Trump in a much better position than he was four years ago when he stunned Hillary Clinton. At this point in 2016, Trump was down seven points in Wisconsin, and we all know how that state was decided on Election Day. In 2016, Trump did not lead in polls of the battleground states before the election. Clinton was up in all of them, and look where she is now.
Trump is a closer who finds his stride in the closing days of a campaign. He knows how to spot an opening and exploit it for his own political advantage. Now, he has it in the form of evidence of the Biden family's corruption. The increased spotlight on the issue has caused the public to rethink their opinion of Biden in spite of the media's overtly favoring him. Four years ago, Trump was in an even worse position, but now he is running for reelection.
There are a number of things that give Trump hope in his campaign. Many of the green shoots come from Florida, which is a must-win state for both candidates. Republicans have been outpacing Democrats both in voter registration and early voting totals. This is a state that Michael Bloomberg is trying to buy for Biden. Moreover, some trends in early voting in North Carolina look like they are starting to break the GOP's way. Some studies of the early voting totals have the GOP on pace to win the state by a razor-thin margin if these trends continue.
Thus, anyone who is writing President Trump's political obituary should think very carefully. Republicans why try to distance themselves from Trump may end up in a perilous place in the next Trump Administration when they need his endorsement in their primary race. There is still plenty of time in this race for the President to continue his momentum. Biden seems to have peaked in the polls, and all the momentum is on Trump's side.
The Democrats Vote Early and the Republicans Will Vote on Time
The truth is that the Democrats need to run up their early voting totals right now. However, the mistake that they are making is thinking that this is some sort of expansion of their numbers from 2016. Instead, spurred by the Democrats' emphasis on mail voting, their voters are just getting their ballots in early. This will come at the expense of their Election Day vote totals. In other words, Democrats are cannibalizing their own voters, and their base will not expand at all.
Republican voters are waiting at home and will show up in large numbers on November 3. Even if Biden is still leading in the polls at that point, so long as Trump comes close to matching his performance from 2016, the "Red Wall" in the Upper Midwest should hold. Polling has showed a tightening race and improvement in Trump's approval rating. In fact, the most recent Rasmussen daily poll, had Trump's approval rating at the highest point of his presidency. With a 52% approval rating, Trump is squarely in the territory of presidents who get reelected. In fact, this approval rating is higher than that of Barack Obama when he won his 2012 race by four points.
Trump is hitting his stride at the exact right time. Presidential elections are all about momentum, and that is what Trump has right now. Anyone who underestimates the President will do so at their own peril yet again, and they will learn the dangers in less than two weeks time.
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